Who voted what in the 12 Tory seats!

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There is much speculation and what appears to be a whole host of misrepresentation about who voted for the Tory Party in Scotland. Below is not a poll, it does not have any exit polling info or such. It is just a look at the voting percentages in each constituency and the vote share from 2015 compared to 2017.

Voter turnout across these 12 constituencies was down by an average of 4% from 2015.

You can make up your own mind on who you think switch to voting Tory.

So to the top line is, (I have all excluded Independents throughout to save time);

Total Scot 2017 2015 Change
SNP 36.9 50 -13.1
Conservatives 28.6 14.9 13.7
Labour 27.1 24.3 2.8
Libdems 6.8 7.5 -0.7
Green 0.2 1.3 -1.1
UKiP 0.2 1.6 -1.4

Both Tory and Labour increased vote share, whilst the SNP dropped by 13.1% and the Libdems dropped by 0.7%.

Below are the 12 seats that went from SNP to Tory.

Berwickshire,R+S 2017 2015 Change
SNP 32.8 36.6 -3.8
Labour 8.6 4.9 3.7
Conservatives 53.9 36 17.9
Libdem 4.7 18.7 -14
UKIP NA 2.4
Green NA 1.1

Here it looks as if the Libdem and UKiP vote went to the Tories. As Labour also gained, no apparent switch from Labour to Tory.

 

Abr West 2017 2015 Change
SNP 32.5 41.6 -9.1
Labour 11.1 4.5 6.6
Conservatives 47.9 28.8 19.1
Libdem 8.6 21.4 -12.8
UKIP NA 1.8
Green NA 1.6

Here it looks as if the majority of the Libdem and the UKiP vote went to the Tories. As Labour also gained, no apparent switch from Labour to Tory. You can speculate where the Labour gain comes from, probably a mixture of SNP and Green.

 

Angus 2017 2015 Change
SNP 38.6 54.2 -15.6
Labour 13 8.8 4.2
Conservatives 45.2 29 16.2
Libdem 3.3 2.7 0.6
UKIP NA 3
Green NA 2.2

As all other parties gained vote share, this is largely an SNP and UKiP switch to Tory, with a smaller percentage going to Labour.

 

Gordon 2017 2015 Change
SNP 35.9 47.7 -11.8
Labour 11.8 5.9 5.9
Conservatives 40.7 11.7 29
Libdem 11.6 32.7 -21.1
UKIP NA 2
Green NA NA

Here it looks as if this was a Libdem and SNP switch largely to Tory, with some going to Labour as they increased vote share by 5.9%.

 

Banf 2017 2015 Change
SNP 39.1 60.2 -21.1
Labour 9.5 5.8 3.7
Conservatives 48 28.8 19.2
Libdem 3.5 5.1 -1.6

This was an SNP switch to Tory, with a small percentage going to Labour as they only increased vote share by 3.7%.

 

Moray 2017 2015 Change
SNP 38.8 49.5 -10.7
Labour 10.9 9.9 1
Conservatives 47.6 31.1 16.5
Libdem 2.3 2.8 -0.5
UKIP NA 3.9
Green NA 2.7

This looks like an SNP and UKiP switch to Tory.

So out of the six seats above, these all indicate that there were large shifts from the SNP and in a couple of cases, Libdem votes to the Tories in 2017. Labour increased vote share in each of the six constituencies.

Unless of course you want to believe that a large percentage of the SNP voters from 2015 didn’t bother to turn out and vote this year.

That would of course mean that the increases in the Tory vote came from people who did not vote in 2015 but turned out in 2017. (If you believe that one, stop reading now and seek help)

 

Below we now see some Labour votes going to the Tories, with the SNP vote switch remaining stubbornly high.

Ayr, C,C 2017 2015 Change
SNP 34.1 48.8 -14.7
Labour 23.9 27.3 -3.4
Conservatives 40.1 19.8 20.3
Libdem 1.9 1.6 0.3
UKIP NA 2.5
Green NA NA

Again a large shift from SNP to Tory, with smaller percentages from Labour and of course the UKiP vote. The Libdems held their own.

 

Stirling 2017 2015 Change
SNP 36.8 45.6 -8.8
Labour 22.1 25.5 -3.4
Conservatives 37.1 23.1 14
Libdem 3.4 2.7 0.7
UKIP NA NA
Green NA 3.1

A biggish shift from SNP to Tory, with a small percentage from Labour. The Libdems held their own.

 

Dumfries and G 2017 2015 Change
SNP 32.4 41.4 -9
Labour 20.9 24.7 -3.8
Conservatives 43.3 29.9 13.4
Libdem 2.4 1.7 0.7
UKIP NA 2.3
Green NA NA

A biggish shift from SNP to Tory, with a small percentage from Labour. The Libdems held their own.

 

Aberdeen South 2017 2015 Change
SNP 31.5 41.6 -10.1
Labour 20.6 26.8 -6.2
Conservatives 42.1 22.8 19.3
Libdem 5.8 4.6 1.2
UKIP NA 1.8
Green NA 2

A large shift from SNP to Tory, with an increasing percentage going from Labour.

 

Refrewshire E 2017 2015 Change
SNP 31.2 40.6 -9.4
Labour 26.7 34 -7.3
Conservatives 40 22 18
Libdem 2.1 1.9 0.2
UKIP NA 1.6
Green NA NA

 

Ochil +SP 2017 2015 Change
SNP 35.3 46 -10.7
Labour 20 28.4 -8.4
Conservatives 41.5 20.7 20.8
Libdem 3.2 2.6 0.6
UKIP NA 2.3
Green NA NA

These last two show a fairly even switch of both SNP and Labour going to the Tories, with a slightly larger percentage of SNP voters.

After doing this wee exercise it is very clear that the old Tory strongholds in Scotland reverted back to to type. The Tory gains were largely caused by SNP voters switching to Tory in 10 of these seats.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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